What! I hear you say, home loan interest rates to go down, well someone had to say it and it appears John Edwards from residex is the first to stand up and give his view on why the next rate move may be down.

He noted the top 5 reasons that he thinks are signs that we maybe at a change, below is his reasoning:

1. Housing finance numbers indicate a slowdown;
2. Housing growth in all cities other than Melbourne is starting to show “cracks” at the margins with lower cost suburbs presenting falls in values;
3. Retail sales look to be sluggish at best and more likely slowing;
4. The problems in Europe are flowing over into stock markets and wiping billions off the value of portfolios and hence zapping confidence; and
5. The Government’s “great big new tax” on the resource sector is going to unsettle people and runs the risk of diminishing employment opportunities as the resource sector holds back on new projects until there is clarity.

Here at Access One we also have thought that the RBA has overshot with the last home loan interest rate rise, the RBA has a tough job as Australia is made up of many macro markets but they have only a single “blunt” instrument at their disposal “increasing interest rates”.  Maybe now that new figures coming out will show the RBA that yes their blunt instrument is working.

For a detailed look at John’s article go to http://www.residex.com.au/newsletter/source2010_05aMC.html

Related posts:

1. ING cut fixed rates
2. House prices and what the forecasters are saying
3. The RBA say’s we are at average interest rate levels
4. NAB, Westpac lift int rates 25bps, NAB says loan volumes soar
5. Two more rate rises then nothing for 15 years says economist